West Africa is rapidly becoming a focal point for global terrorism as jihadist violence escalates in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. This surge in attacks is not only destabilizing the region but also fueling a significant rise in migration to Europe, as many flee the chaos.
The recent brazen assault in Mali’s capital, Bamako, where jihadists targeted a police training academy and airport, underscores the growing threat. This incident, occurring just before dawn prayers on September 17, marks a stark escalation since 2016, demonstrating that extremist groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State are now capable of striking at the heart of government power.
As conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan dominate global headlines, the ongoing turmoil in the Sahel is often overlooked. However, it has become a critical driver of migration, particularly towards Spain’s Canary Islands. According to the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration (IOM), the number of migrants arriving from Sahelian countries rose by 62% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 17,300 individuals. This exodus is attributed to both violent conflict and the impacts of climate change.
Diplomatic experts warn that areas under jihadist control are likely transforming into training grounds for future attacks on major urban centers. The wave of military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger since 2020, largely influenced by jihadist violence and the failure of Western-supported governments, has led to a shift towards military alliances with Russia, particularly with the Wagner Group. Nevertheless, these juntas continue to face territorial losses.
Caleb Weiss, an expert on jihadist movements, predicts instability for these regimes, suggesting that one could collapse, potentially resulting in the emergence of jihadist states in the Sahel. The withdrawal of Western military support has left a significant void, allowing jihadist groups to operate with increasing freedom.
The U.S. military and intelligence agencies previously played a critical role in monitoring and countering these threats, but their presence has been severely curtailed, especially after Niger’s junta expelled American forces last year. The absence of effective air surveillance has emboldened jihadist operations, with violent incidents nearly doubling since 2021.
The ongoing conflict is also exacerbating migration patterns, with many displaced individuals, including families, fleeing to urban areas in search of safety. In Burkina Faso, jihadist attacks have resulted in devastating civilian casualties, with the nation recently topping the Global Terrorism Index for the first time, reflecting a staggering increase in fatalities linked to terrorism.
Experts indicate that the dual threat of al Qaeda and Islamic State factions is expanding, as both groups exploit local grievances and provide limited governance in the areas they control. This scenario raises concerns that the Sahel could become a new base for global jihadist activities, reminiscent of past conflicts in Afghanistan and Libya.
European nations remain divided on how to respond to the escalating crisis. While southern countries experiencing a surge in migrants advocate for ongoing dialogue with the juntas, others express concerns over human rights violations. The lack of military and political leverage among European nations complicates potential interventions.
The overarching fear among Western officials is that jihadist groups may aspire to target interests beyond the Sahel, including potential attacks against the United States. While some analysts believe these ambitions have not yet materialized, recent attacks signal a pressing need for effective counter-terrorism strategies in the region.
With the situation in West Africa growing increasingly dire, experts emphasize the urgent need for new security approaches to address the complexities of jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel.
